All F3s

[mt2644]

Hello,

I would like to ask all people in F3 category to participate in this thread and post their PDs with progress made so far in their quest for receiving their immigrant visas.
I will start with my own PD which is Sep. 2001 and from what I read in different forums, I ought to receive the first batch of papers 2-3 months prior to my PD to become current which may very well be in one or two years time.

[pike]

I am still way down the line ..my priority date is March 2003. I know you asked for contributuion to this thread who has "progress". Nevertheless I'd still like to be part of this. Any information I can gather from you folks who are in line before me will help me through this very frustrating process. This way we can all try to provide a little bit of information for all persons in this category. Whenever I get my letter of approval I'll let the forum know.

[mt2644]

I have been reading about 245(i) provision passed in 1998 and extension given in late 2000 to file papers with immigration services up until April 30 2001 (Please Google 245(i) to read more about it).
From what I gather, 300,000-500,000 applications for immigration purposes were filed in different categories, FB or EB, during the first 4 months of 2001 that may take up to 2 years to get cleared for people in F3 category. I have provided the following link for you all to see how visa bulletin progressed in the past 10 years and would like you all to pay attention to F1 category and the number of months it took for this category to get passed April 2001 hurdle.

This may and I underline “may” happen to F3 category particularly to people who have filed after April 2001 such as myself. Since I do not have access to any breakdown on applications filed with immigration services, I just have to go by past data available to draw a qualitative conclusion on possible time frame for F3 category with 2001 PD in general and applicants with April 2001 – December 2001 PD in specific to get called up for interview. I thought this was important enough to share with you all and hope I am totally wrong on this for people in F3 category with 2001 PD.

I read many articles and posts on US immigration progress. My information comes from public domain data which is available to everyone interested in this subject. I have tested this observation many times and it seems to me that predicting visa bulletin movement based on receiving papers from NVC does work “most” of the time. If people are receiving DS3032 form, which is normally 2-3 months prior to their PDs to become current, visa bulletin ought to advance pass their PD the following month. It is very important for people to post their progress in order to get an idea as to where we stand in relation to visa bulletin movement.

Of course, the above observation did not apply to August VB since we all witnessed a week of advancement for F3 category. I was almost sure that it was going to advance a month since I know of people on other forums with end of Dec. 2000 who have received their first batch of papers to file with NVC.
This is the reason I asked people in F3 category to post their progress because it is still the best way to learn of VB’s possible future movement.

[pike]

Wow I visited the web site you suggested and the trend on the chart seems to be it takes 2 years to finish one year. I did'nt have enough time to fully go through the table and now I see you no longer have the link..I can't remember the site. Thanks for sharing information with the rest of us F3's.

[mt2644]

I appreciate the moderator not to omit any information important enough to the rest of us since we are the only people trying to shed some light on our immigration process and the time it may take us to get to the finish line. If this is going to be the case, please make sure people will have access to info needed to make sense of the posts in some other structure or form.

[maruxa]

Hello to all,

It has been a very good suggestion to have this F3 thread, my PD is march 2001, my case is in the NVC, but as of today I haven't receive the first batch of papers, I will let you all know how things progress...

[mt2644]

Last I heard people with end of Dec. 2000 PD have started to receive their papers. This was close to 4 weeks ago and ever since I have not heard anyone receiving papers with Dec. 2000 PD.

[mt2644]

Oops, you need to read my next post before reading this one.

The following data provided by Immigration services show number of family based immigrants allowed by law to receive green cards during any fiscal year.

FAMILY-SPONSORED PREFERENCES
First: Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Citizens: 23,400 plus any numbers not required for fourth preference.
Second: Spouses and Children, and Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Permanent
Residents: 114,200, plus the number (if any) by which the worldwide family preference level exceeds 226,000, and any unused first preference numbers:
A. Spouses and Children: 77% of the overall second preference limitation, of which 75% are exempt from the per-country limit;
B. Unmarried Sons and Daughters (21 years of age or older): 23% of the overall second preference limitation.
Third: Married Sons and Daughters of Citizens: 23,400, plus any numbers not required by first and second preferences.
Fourth: Brothers and Sisters of Adult Citizens: 65,000, plus any numbers not required by first three preferences.

As the above data shows, F2A category has the most advantage and speed to advance every month when comparing number of visa numbers and applications on file to be processed.

It was mentioned that the totals, in the following table, represent not only principal applicants or petition beneficiaries, but their spouses and children entitled to derivative status under INA 203(d) as well. This means that the number of F3 applications are not 484,230 but 242,115 at most since this category belongs to married children hence it should be divided by 2 to find the upper limit or highest possible number of applications. I read somewhere that for each applicant there should be a 1.5 people factored in for spouses and children. Now the number of applications reaches to about 200,000 for F3 category, considering the 1.5 factor, with only 23,000 limits allowed under the law. This number is very close to F1 with an exception that there is another limit for F3 category “derivatives” hence a slower movement compared to F1 category.
Now a ratio analysis ought to explain the VB movement for each category. One needs to compare the number of available visa numbers to number of applications on hand and get a rough idea as to where he or she stands when it comes to predicting PD movement.

F1: 228,787
F2A: 322,212
F2B: 481,726
F3: 484,230
F4: 1,206,397
Total: 2,723,352

You need to remember that 245(i) applications are not included. As I mentioned before, there are estimates floating around as to the total number of applications, FB and EB, filed under this law and it is believed to be anywhere from 250,000-500,000 at most.
Say we have 300,000 applications filed in Family based category and if the above table is any indication of their ratio as oppose to general population of 2,723,352, we can add another 60,000 to our F3 category or another 24000 applications to the total number of applications and do the math once more. This gives me a 9.5 year of average wait time, give or take couple months, for F3 category at this point which is not that far off of the current wait times we are witnessing today.

[mt2644]

I copy pasted the following data from March visa bulletin and welcome any number crunching and prediction as to how visa numbers are going to be allocated in FY2010.

“The Department of State requested that the National Visa Center at Portsmouth, New Hampshire provide the totals of applicants on the waiting list in the various numerically-limited family immigrant categories. Those totals are listed below, and reflect persons registered under each respective numerical limitation, i.e., the totals represent not only principal applicants or petition beneficiaries, but their spouses and children entitled to derivative status under INA 203(d) as well. It should be noted that applications for adjustment of status under INA 245 which are pending at Citizenship and Immigration Services offices are not included in the totals which are being presented at this time.
Family-Sponsored Preference Categories

F1: 228,787
F2A: 322,212
F2B: 481,726
F3: 484,230
F4: 1,206,397
Total: 2,723,352

The ten countries with the highest number of waiting list registrants are listed below; together these represent 75.4% of the Department of State total. This list includes all countries with at least 45,000 persons on the waiting list. INA 202 sets an annual limit on the amount of family-sponsored preference visas which may be issued to applicants from any one country; the 2009 per-country limit is 15,820.”

Mexico 961,744
Philippines 401,849
Dominican Republic 136,070
China 132,325
India 115,394
Vietnam 109,910
Bangladesh 50,275
Haiti 50,029
El Salvador 48,776
Pakistan 45,905
All others 671,075
Total 2,723,352

[pike]

Thank you Mt2644 for your response to my P.M. My approval letter was sent out yesterday August 12,2009. 9.5 years seems to be right.. based on the way things are moving. Hmmm!!! What can I say ..."I wish us all good luck" on this journey.