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I sttumbled on this
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info
"The first number is the time it takes to complete 50% of cases (the median). The second number is the time it takes to complete 93% of cases."
So 7% of cases will always be outside of normal processing time BY DESIGN!!!
That means 1 out of every 14 people. That is why we are seeing cases from May and June here etc.
But it gets even worse.
if you read the page they say that they have a pilot program, from which they derive time from actual cases and it is fairly precise, but not all case types are covered.
For instance I-765 and I-131 (EAD and Travel Document) are not covered, so the range is gotten by:
"For non-pilot forms, we will continue to use our old method to calculate processing times, but will add an upper limit that is generally 130% of the processing time. "
Now I don't know what the "old method" is but since they are multiplying something by 1.3 to get the "case of inquiry time", it doesn't give me much confidence of high accuracy.
"The first number is the time it takes to complete 50% of cases (the median). The second number is the time it takes to complete 93% of cases."
So 7% of cases will always be outside of normal processing time BY DESIGN!!!
That means 1 out of every 14 people. That is why we are seeing cases from May and June here etc.
But it gets even worse.
if you read the page they say that they have a pilot program, from which they derive time from actual cases and it is fairly precise, but not all case types are covered.
For instance I-765 and I-131 (EAD and Travel Document) are not covered, so the range is gotten by:
"For non-pilot forms, we will continue to use our old method to calculate processing times, but will add an upper limit that is generally 130% of the processing time. "
Now I don't know what the "old method" is but since they are multiplying something by 1.3 to get the "case of inquiry time", it doesn't give me much confidence of high accuracy.
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