New timeline for naturalization?

[LinMS]

Seeing that we have to wait over 6 months to get the Biometric done, will we still have to wait the 3-5 months before the interview?

[stairsandstars]

Wonderful question. I can shed some light on this. I am in the Plains states. My good friend who applied about 6 weeks before I did already has US citizenship, complete with passport and voter registration. She applied early Feb. I didn't become eligible till March and applied in Mid March almost on the day of the USCIS closure. She got biometrics within couple of days, in mid Feb. She already had her interview and exam scheduled for late March when covid hit. When the offices opened up in June, she got rescheduled within 1 week and got approved in mid June. She then got her ceremony scheduled right around 4th of July and is now registered to vote and already has her passport.
Meanwhile it's now 6 months on the dot for me and still nothing on biometrics.
I also have another friend in TX who applied in late Jan. As it's a busier office, his original biometrics was scheduled for early April. Of course covid. As of now, he still has not had his biometrics rescheduled. The online system is forecasting his case to complete in May 2021.
I know those dates are meaningless. My own originally showed for July 2020,, then Aug, then October, and now has disappeared from the system. I was expecting it to be this way b/c I'd read they were unreliable to begin with. Regardless, where I am, I would have had the process complete by now were it not for covid.
My friend thinks that once you get the biometrics, the speed should depend on the locality. So she said my timeline should mirror hers once I get biometrics.

Has anyone who applied in March or after gotten biometrics scheduled?

Keep in mind also that I talked to the USCIS hotline and they informed me that the biometrics side of things did not resume until August. So June-July were spent completing backlogged naturalizations.

[LinMS]

Thank you this was very helpful. I heard as well that the new cases will start 90 days after the reopening of the field office to get rid of the backlogs first. We will wait and see.

[luukiz]

i applied on March 20, no response yet, no schedule for biometrics

[stairsandstars]

i applied on March 20, no response yet, no schedule for biometrics

Pretty much the same-applied on March 22,, no response, no schedule.
they have a tool where you can enter your field office and see the timeline. What i don't understand is how the 2020 numbers are around the same ballpark of historical trajectories. It may be that the data is still reflecting the cases that completed before the F*CKING pandemic. That shutdown totally ruined it for the rest of the year and beyond. I would imagine the time to completion should more than double, perhaps quadruple.

[stairsandstars]

Everyone, I have done some digging into data and such and have a rough estimate about the timeline. Specifically,, I searched by the ASC and looked at 2020 timelines. At this moment, only a handful cases relate to March and so far no one who applied after the 18th of March closure has heard anything. But I chanced upon a few applicants whose original biometrics were for March 15th-March 20th just having gotten their biometrics completed this past week. They had applied in the third and final weeks of Feb.
So I am a month behind these cases. Based on this, I would say that in faster moving centers, March applicants will get biometrics scheduled for late October to November. we should get the scheduling notices within the next 3-4 weeks.
I then checked for the timeline, to see if it differs thereafter. Of course, the data is very sparse at the moment. But I read 2 cases, both of whom had already done biometrics right before closure in March. They each got the interview/exam in July and oath in August. This aligns exactly with my friend's timeline, at the same field office.
So it appears that whether or not one had a biometrics appointment by the time of closure is a significant determinant of time frame. those who did not, can expect to be set back by an average of 7 months. But thereafter, the process seems to be moving as it did before the pandemic-for now, since furloughs have been avoided. So the notice USCIS put up to pressure the federal govv't to generating funds affected us. They pretty much halted all biometrics until recently-until September.
But for example,, 2019 data shows an average of 6 months from biometrics to oath, with an average 4 month wait between bio and interview/exam and the 2020 cases are following this same timeline.
So I was a March applicant compared to my friend, a Feb applicant. She got her oath in August.. By this metric, without the blight of covid, I'd be having the oath right about now. but now the 3 month closure has resulted in a 7 month delay for me, under the best case scenario-as in, the speed is parallel, no second wave, no second closure, etc.

also, I am a data analyst so it seems to me that USCIS has chosen to freeze all other processes but pending naturalizations. This makes the appear the data AS IF it was not too dismal. But of course, it's lagged and their poor decision making will be apparent once the rest of 2020 cases and worse, 2021 cases appear on their dashboards. There's only so much data doctoring and manipulation one can do to mask that.

[isamom]

stairsandstars, many thanks! great to see this data and I agree with your analysis.

[stairsandstars]

Thanks isamom. Another facet to this is that some people who became eligible to naturalization due to marriage are getting their biometrics reused. This is because they go through removal of conditions (ROC) and submit bios for that. Typically that'd have been in the last 18 months, which means their bios are not yet expired. So , to get them processed quicker USCIS is issuing them re-use notices and then scheduling their naturalizations.. In a way, it's unfair since employed based -EB- ones wait 5 vs 3 years and then are now thrown under the bus with the bio ordeal. The whole thing makes me mad though the rawest deal is for those who become eligible now in October. Not only will they not hear about biometrics for a good year if not more, but they'll pay double for the experience. those who become eligible now may not even be able to vote in '24. I kid you not.