Probability of getting H1B visa from F1OPT in US

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It seems that getting an h1B now has become just a matter of luck, even if you have a masters/PhD. You can apply 3 times or so, and its anybody
s guess whether you will get it.

Whats the probability that you will get your H1B under the current circumstances?

If you think you wont get your H1B, what other backup plans are you guys thinking of?